Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.423511 0.489303 0.561059 0.645013 0.740423 0.845356 0.969380
2025-08-17 0.306855 0.394987 0.500788 0.636602 0.805706 1.008666 1.270010
2025-08-24 0.241555 0.337058 0.460151 0.629240 0.854101 1.141290 1.534055
2025-08-31 0.193075 0.288420 0.418862 0.608429 0.874545 1.232067 1.745385
2025-09-07 0.173578 0.274592 0.419853 0.641045 0.965679 1.420186 2.098944
2025-09-14 0.145247 0.242757 0.389805 0.623836 0.981976 1.503064 2.310175
2025-09-21 0.122752 0.215980 0.362931 0.606560 0.993962 1.577748 2.512384
2025-09-28 0.105246 0.194361 0.340774 0.592920 1.008346 1.654881 2.721775
2025-10-05 0.095862 0.184911 0.336748 0.607240 1.067108 1.803418 3.051103
2025-10-12 0.090430 0.181528 0.342211 0.637395 1.153665 2.001633 3.473011
2025-10-19 0.083406 0.174165 0.339679 0.653035 1.216448 2.165042 3.849226
2025-10-26 0.075808 0.164590 0.331905 0.658155 1.260771 2.300046 4.186619
2025-11-02 0.067870 0.153433 0.320242 0.655517 1.292107 2.417163 4.505938
2025-11-09 0.060185 0.141716 0.306170 0.646872 1.311727 2.515529 4.800649
2025-11-16 0.053628 0.131395 0.293525 0.639392 1.332337 2.616428 5.106124
2025-11-23 0.046644 0.119039 0.275160 0.618271 1.324273 2.663506 5.315955
2025-11-30 0.045174 0.119102 0.282869 0.651372 1.425731 2.921846 5.934790
2025-12-07 0.039782 0.109037 0.267427 0.633907 1.423324 2.981752 6.181959
2025-12-14 0.035052 0.099838 0.252749 0.616373 1.418836 3.036619 6.422190
2025-12-21 0.031137 0.092077 0.240384 0.602531 1.420602 3.103421 6.689485
2025-12-28 0.029379 0.089728 0.240495 0.617064 1.484746 3.300327 7.228942
2026-01-04 0.028660 0.090100 0.247229 0.647668 1.586718 3.581513 7.956590
2026-01-11 0.027167 0.088078 0.247780 0.663540 1.656785 3.800481 8.569263